published on June 01, 2024 in today

A 5-step plan to get the Falcons from here to their first playoff berth in 6 seasons

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons are faced with a rare opportunity as the NFL calendar turns to December — avoiding the “scenarios game.”

That’s the one in which NFL teams holding on to waning playoff chances have to start rooting for Team X to beat Team Y and then Team Y to rally and beat Team Z and so on and so on to keep their playoff hopes alive. Atlanta, however, sits as the No. 4 seed in the NFL playoffs by virtue of its one-game lead in the NFC South.

The Falcons (6-6) have a 63 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff predictor. That would increase to an 85 percent chance with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) on Sunday in Atlanta. A loss would drop the Falcons’ postseason probability to 36 percent, although they still would control their destiny in the division.

“Any time you are playing meaningful games in December, you’re doing something right,” Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder said.

The Falcons already have a win over all three of their division opponents, which puts them in a good spot in the case of any tiebreakers, but the Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints (5-7) loom just one game back in the standings.

“We’ve got our work cut out for us, but we’re excited to be in this sort of game,” coach Arthur Smith said. “It should feel like a playoff game.”

Tyler Allgeier and the Falcons already beat the Buccaneers earlier this season. They go for the sweep, and a 4-0 record in the division, Sunday. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)

Here’s our five-step to-do list for the Falcons to avoid the “scenarios game” down the stretch and make their first playoff appearance since the 2017 season.

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Manage through injury

Through Smith’s first two seasons in Atlanta, the Falcons had good injury luck, but the tide is beginning to turn. After losing starting middle linebacker Troy Andersen (pectoral) and then starting defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (knee) earlier in the season, they have suffered a rash of injuries as of late.

Right tackle Kaleb McGary (knee), linebacker Nate Landman (knee), defensive tackle David Onyemata (ankle) and center Drew Dalman (ankle) all missed practice Wednesday because of injuries suffered or aggravated against the New York Jets last week. Cornerbacks A.J. Terrell (concussion protocol) and Jeff Okudah (ankle) were limited Wednesday, also as fallout from Sunday’s game.

Landman’s injury could be the most significant even though he’s the least-known name above. He already had been moved up in the rotation by Andersen’s injury. Now the Falcons turn to Andre Smith, a seventh-round pick by the Carolina Panthers in 2018 who joined Atlanta in May. Combined with the loss of Jarrett, Andersen and defensive tackle LaCale London (whose 21-day window to return from injured reserve was opened Wednesday), the middle of Atlanta’s defense is getting thin quickly.

“That’s why your depth is so important,” Arthur Smith said. “I think that’s why it’s so important to use the practice squad right, to use those small transactions. I say all the time that I appreciate the way that we work as a staff. All we’re trying to do is make sure we have the best players, and they fit us, and we’re working that depth.”

If Terrell can’t play, it puts more pressure on rookie cornerback Clark Phillips Jr., which would be especially scary this week against Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans.

“The first thing you do is you have to get the other guys ready to go. You can’t sit here and say ‘We hope, we hope,’” Atlanta assistant head coach for defense Jerry Gray said. “Do we want A.J.? Of course we do. He’s one of our best corners. But if he can’t go, the next corner will have to have his mindset ready to go.”

Find some offensive consistency

In weeks 5-9, the Falcons averaged 392.4 yards. In the three games since, they are averaging 281.3. Though a defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in an NFL-leading 24 consecutive drives has helped them to two straight wins, the offense has to start carrying its weight.

Atlanta’s offensive inconsistency throughout the season is a big reason it hasn’t won three games in a row this season (or at all during Smith’s three-year tenure).

“It would be one thing if we had 12 games where it’s been nothing but 130 yards,” Smith said. “Yeah, we’re striving for more. I won’t go too much more into it because it’s going to sound like excuses, but at the end of the day, we have to continue to work and get (more offense) because that’s what we’re shooting for. Good teams understand you have to play the game together. It may not be flashy statistically, but our mindset is to improve.”

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That improvement has occurred even if results aren’t always outwardly apparent, Smith said. Asked whether he felt like the Week 14 Falcons would beat the Week 2 Falcons, the coach replied, “Yeah, absolutely.”

“There are things that have gone on that we have gotten more efficient with and improved,” he said. “Sometimes they are small things, some of your timing issues. You have weeks, though, where bad habits creep back up or somebody takes them away.”

Overall, the Falcons are 18th in the NFL in yards per game (328.6), 24th in scoring (18.83 ppg), 25th in touchdowns per drive (15.3 percent) and 25th in points per drive (1.58), according to TruMedia. They are 20th in the league in turnover margin (minus-3).

😡 ANGRY RUN @ceeflashpee84 😡

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— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 28, 2023

Kyle Pitts, the Falcons’ third-year tight end, caught four passes for 51 yards Sunday against New York, and that might be the ceiling on the contribution Atlanta can expect from the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft down the stretch. Waiting for a breakout moment when the explosive Pitts of his rookie year suddenly returns doesn’t appear to be helping him or the team at the moment. It’s clear he still is hampered by the MCL tear that ended his 2022 season, and though there’s every reason to believe he will return to full form, it might take longer than fans want.

Despite his contributions Sunday, Pitts achieved only 1.9 yards of separation, which tied for the lowest among the league’s tight ends, according to Next Gen Stats. That fits with the other statistical numbers we’ve seen from Pitts this season. He is 24th among tight ends with 2.5 yards after the catch per reception.

It’s worth wondering whether this Pitts should be getting 19.3 percent of Atlanta’s passing game targets, which he is at the moment. In Pitts’ place, the Falcons might consider getting more wide receivers involved in the passing game. Only one of their wide receivers (Drake London) has more than 17 catches this season.

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Stay away from explosive plays

It feels unfair to ask more of Atlanta’s defense considering it leads the league in defensive rushing EPA per snap and is fifth in success rate (62.3 percent) and seventh in scoring defense (20 ppg allowed), but there is a lurking concern.

The Falcons are 15th in the league in explosive play percentage allowed (10.1). Fans no doubt remember Tennessee quarterback Will Levis’ four-touchdown performance.

Dominate the division

The Falcons play the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16 and the Chicago Bears in Week 17. Honestly, those games don’t matter. If Atlanta beats Tampa Bay this week, Carolina in Week 15 and New Orleans in Week 18, it will win the NFC South and head to the playoffs no matter what else happens.

(Top photo of Desmond Ridder and Kyle Pitts: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

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